Comparative Analysis of Two Predictive Models for Forecasting Forest Depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve, Kaduna State, Nigeria.
ABSTRACT
This study seeks to forecast forest depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve in Kaduna State and to compare results of Markov Chain Model and CA- Markov model with a view to determine a better model in forecasting forest depletion.
The extent of forest covers in 1973, 1990 and 2009 were examined. Forecast of forest depletion for 2028 was done using Markov chain model and CA- Markov model.
The year 2028 was used based on the fact that markov chain model can forecast based on the year interval of the input satellite imageries (1990-2009 an interval of nineteen years).
Both primary and secondary sources of data were used. The primary source included use of Landsat images of the study area for 1973, 1990 and 2009. Idrisi Selva was used for analysis of these data and for forecasting forest depletion.
Student T- test was used to test for significant differences between results of the two predictive models. The result revealed that the forest was declining at the rate of 0.09% per year.
Forest forecast for 2028 using markov chain model reduced from 3724.25ha in 1973 to 3168.75ha in 2028. Using CA- markov to forecast for 2028, the result revealed that forest cover will decrease to 3019.54ha.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page…………….i
DECLARATION …………. ii
CERTIFICATION…………..iii
DEDICATION ………………. iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS………… v
ABSTRACT………………….. vi
TABLE OF CONTENT ……….. vii
CHAPTER ONE ………. 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study……….. 1
1.2 Statement of the Research Problem……….. 6
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the study …………… 10
1.4 Research hypothesis …………………. 10
1.5 Scope of the Study………… 10
1.6 Justification of the Study ………. 11
CHAPTER TWO
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW………….. 12
2.1 INTRODUCTION……………………………….. 12
2.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK…………. 12
2.2.1 Forest Reserves: ………………………. 12
2.2.2 Change Detection…………………………. 15
2.2.2.1 Post Classification Comparison ……. 16
2.2.2.2 Image Differencing ………………………. 16
2.2.2.3 Image Ratioing ………………………… 17
2.2.2.4 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) …….. 18
2.2.3 Land Use /Cover Change (LUCC) Models………. 19
2.2.3.1 Empirically Fitted Models……………………. 21
2.2.3.2 Dynamic Process Models……………………. 22
2.2.4 Remote Sensing ………………………………… 26
2.2.5 Geographic Information System……………….. 28
2.3 LITERATURE REVIEW……………………….. 30
2.3.1 Transition Probability Matrix ……………….. 30
2.3.2 Application of Markov Chain Model…… 30
2.3.2 Application of Cellular Automata Model ………….. 32
CHAPTER THREE
STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY…. 35
3.1 INTRODUCTION……………….. 35
3.2 THE STUDY AREA …….. 35
3.2.1 Location, Position and Size of the Study Area …………… 35
3.2.2 Geology………………………. 36
3.2.3 Relief…………………………….. 37
3.2.4 Climate………………………. 37
3.2.5 Soils and Vegetation ……………. 38
3.2.6 Hydrology …………….. 40
3.3 METHODOLOGY …………………….. 41
3.3.1 Types and Sources of Data……………… 41
3.3.2 Image Processing …………………….. 42
3.3.3 Classification………………………. 42
3.3.4 Data Analysis………………… 44
CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ……………….. 46
4.1 INTRODUCTION…………………….. 46
4.2 Extent of forest cover in 1973, 1990 and 2009…………… 47
4.3 Land use/cover changes in Afaka Forest Reserve ……….. 52
4.3.1 Rate of change…………………….. 53
4.4 FORECAST OF FOREST LOSS USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL ….. 54
4.4.2 Projected land use/land cover …………… 55
4.5 FORECAST OF FOREST LOSS USING CA- MARKOV MODEL….. 58
4.6 Differences between Markov chain and Cellular Automata markov chain model…. 60
4.6.1 Hypothesis Testings…………… 61
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS …………… 63
5.1 INTRODUCTION……………… 63
5.2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS……………… 63
5.3 CONCLUSION …………………… 64
5.4 RECOMMENDATIONS…………… 65
REFERENCES………………. 66
INTRODUCTION
Nature endowed man; since ages, with many natural resources for the sustenance of his socio-economic needs. Since these needs are ever changing and ever on the increase, the resources are often at the risk of depletion (Nwadialor, 2001).
Nwadialor (2001) stated that one of the most affected of these resources appear to be “natural forest”, which has been continuously under threats of over-exploitation by man, leading to negative changes in its status and productivity.
Accordingly, changes occur as human beings attempt to adjust their seemingly endless wants and desires for food, shelter, recreation, infrastructural facilities and so on to the forest resources available to them.
Forest depletion is akin to deforestation; which broadly speaking, refers to the gradual or rapid process of temporary or permanent removal of trees, resulting in the partial or complete eradication of tree cover in a locality (Jones, 2000).
It can occur due to natural or human factors. In recent times, the rapid rate of deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries have resulted in annual loss of about 17-20 million hectares of forest (Flazzel & Magrath, 1992).
According to Flazzel and Magrath, deforestation in simple terms is the reduction of the stocking vegetation cover resulting from human activities.
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