Impact of Global Conflict and Terrorism on some Sellected Macroeconomic Variables

Impact of  Global Conflict and Terrorism on some Sellected Macroeconomic Variables.

ABSTRACT

Globalization makes societies permeable to global turbulence and raises their vulnerability to transnational public goods that impact them in accordance with available fault lines. Like the recent global financial and economic crises, Nigeria is exposed to global violent conflict, with economic consequences that need to be explored.

Assessing these costs is even more pertinent with the increased utilization of terrorism in conflict that increases the economic risks associated with the phenomenon, evidencing from the uniqueness of terrorism. Its choice by the weak in the society; its non-exclusiveness and proclivity for targeting large numbers of innocent people (for the purpose of killing or harming them).

Obviously, the search for economic truths on violent conflict and Nigeria is necessitated by the persistence and depth of the events over time, along with the paucity of studies devoted to quantitative assessment of economic impact of violent conflict in the country.

Nevertheless, dealing with the issue requires an expanded review of conflict literature to clarify unfamiliar concepts, while the application of economic tools extends the discourse beyond the realm of politics, which aid the consideration of violent conflict for optimal policy options in the country.

To that extent, a mid-size macro econometric model, estimated and simulated, using a diverse set of data base on global violent conflict and terrorism revealed mixed consequences for global violent conflict and terrorism in Nigeria.

TABLE  OF CONTENTS

Title page-

Declaration-

Certification –

Dedication –

Acknowledgement-

Abstract-

List of Appendices          – List of tables      –         –

List of Charts           –    – List of Boxes

Table of Contents

CHAPTER ONE——- 13

1.1 Background– 13

1.2.  Statement of problem—— 15

1.3  Objectives  of the study—- 20

Justification  for the study————- 20

• Hypothesis – -21
• Scope and limitations of the Study—- 21
• Work plan– 22
• CHAPTER TWO——– 24
• Review of the literature—— 24
  • Review of key concepts———– 24
  • Economic Analysis of Conflict——- 33
    • Typologies of Conflict—— 41
    • Temporary links between Internal and External violent conflict——- 45
  • Economic Consequences of Violent conflict—–53
  • Analytical Framework—– 59
  • Empirical Literature Review————— 75
  • Violent Conflict and  Terrorism in Africa——- 94
    • Colonia influence and  violent  conflict in Nigeria— 96
    • Patterns of violent conflict and terrorism in Nigeria———– 102

3.0 CHAPTER THREE-—- 110

• Research Methodology—– 110
• Some Stylized Facts—- 111
• The model——— 119
• Data and Estimation Techniques———- 138
  • Data requirements and sources————– 138
  • Estimation Technique——— 141

4.1  Empirical  evidences  and  analysis of result——— 143

Estimation Result—— 145

Baseline Simulation Analysis———– 149

Baseline Simulation– 149

Summary of Findings– 156

5.0 CHAPTER FIVE

5.1.  Summary,  conclusion and recommendation

Summary—– 158

Conclusion

Recommendations-        163

INTRODUCTION

For various political, economic and social reasons, conflict and terrorism can erupt. Conflict is a situation in which people, groups or countries are involved in disagreements or arguments. The synonyms are clash, squabble, dispute, fight, divergence, variance, quarrel, inconsistency-all tending to connote negativity.

Nevertheless, conflict could also be “creative” (Sombart, 1913, Schumpeter 1975)³, especially when a violent revolt, for instance, destroys a growth retarding dictatorial or kleptocratic regime (Degroot, 2009) and creates the pathway for rapid economic transformation.

This means, in essence, that conflict has some unique characteristics that should be of interest to policy makers, including its initiation, motivation, duration, typologies, techniques and macroeconomic consequences.

It is more pertinent to do this under conditions of globalization, where countries are linked and permeable to global turbulence, making it possible for the transnationalization of violent conflict.

REFERENCES

Abdul-Ganiyu Garba, 1999. Regime Changes, External Shock and Federal Fiscal Operations in Nigeria: 1975-93 in Fiscal Federalism and Nigeria’ Economic Development. Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Nigerian Economic society 1999.

 P. K. Garba, 2002. Open conflicts when states, institutions and markets fail: The case of Nigeria. Unpublished manuscript in file with the Department of Economics Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria.

Abdullah, Ibrahim and Patrick Muana, 1998. The Revolutionary United Front of Sierra Leone: A Revolt of the Lumpen Proletariat’ in Christopher Clapham (ed.), African Guerrillas, Oxford: James Currey, 1998

Anneli Botha, 2007. Relationship between Africa and International Terrorism: Causes and Linkages. Paper presented at the conference on Southern African and International Terrorism Dialogue hosted by the Brenthurst Foundation Tswalu, 25-27 January 2007

Aghion, P. and P. Howitt, 1998. Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press

StudentsandScholarship Team.